NC shares slide after AION 2 launch misses market hopes

NC’s stock fell in Seoul on October 8 after an NH Investment & Securities analyst said AION 2 Global’s launch was solid, but not strong enough to clear investor expectations.

NH cut its target price for NC from 380,000 won to 320,000 won while keeping a Buy rating. Just before 10 a.m. local time, NC shares were trading at 220,500 won, down about 7.2% from the previous close of 237,500 won. The stock had already slipped roughly 5% on October 6, the first trading day after AION 2 Global’s free-to-play launch.

Analyst An Jae-min said AION 2 Global peaked at around 398,000 concurrent players on Steam on its October 5 launch day. By 3 p.m. KST on October 7, it was holding near 200,000 concurrent players. That launch peak was higher than Throne and Liberty’s global peak of 336,000, but An said the traffic was still “hard to judge” as well above market expectations. He also noted that more players could arrive over the weekend.

NH still expects AION 2 to be a meaningful earner for NC. Because the game’s monetization is described as lighter than Throne and Liberty’s, the firm expects better early retention and forecasts about 100 billion won in AION 2 Global revenue over its first three months. For comparison, Throne and Liberty brought in roughly 150 billion won over the same period after launch. NH also estimates AION 2 Global could reach around 1.2 billion won in daily revenue.

For NC’s third quarter, NH is forecasting 749.7 billion won in revenue and 106.9 billion won in operating profit, slightly above consensus. That includes a one-time settlement of about 30 billion won tied to the end of Amazon Games’ Throne and Liberty publishing deal, with NC taking over global service. AION 2 Global revenue is expected to show up more fully in the fourth quarter.