Analyst Forecast Says Console Shipments Will Drop Nearly 20% in 2026

Global game console shipments are expected to fall 19.5% in 2026, dropping to 33.9 million units, according to new data from S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan. The firm points to higher hardware prices, driven by ongoing RAM and storage supply issues, as the main reason consoles are getting harder to justify for many buyers.

That would reverse last year’s bump from the Nintendo Switch 2 launch, which helped push shipments up 13.5% to 42.1 million units. S&P’s July 2026 forecast covers home consoles from Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft, and it expects the market to slide further to around 27.1 million units in 2027 before gradually recovering to 37.4 million by 2030.

Nintendo is still in the strongest position of the three platform holders in this forecast. S&P expects Switch 2 shipments of 17.1 million units in 2026, roughly in line with the original Switch’s second year. Nintendo’s own projections, noted in its latest full-year results, put Switch 2 sales at 16.5 million units for its second fiscal year after launch.

PlayStation 5 shipments are expected to keep slowing as the console enters its later years. S&P says PS5 shipped 17.1 million units in 2025, down 15.2% year over year, and forecasts 13.2 million in 2026. Sony also raised PS5 prices in several regions in April, with reported increases taking the base PS5 from $550 to $650, the digital edition from $500 to $600, and the PS5 Pro from $750 to $900.

Xbox hardware looks rougher in the forecast. Microsoft shipped 3.2 million Xbox Series X|S consoles last year, which S&P says is its lowest annual total on record, and the firm expects that to fall to 2.5 million in 2026. The report also models a sharp decline after that, depending on what Microsoft’s next hardware actually looks like.

S&P analyst Neil Barbour said the recovery later in the decade depends on component costs easing enough by 2028 for Sony and Microsoft to launch new hardware in the $600 to $800 range. For now, the firm sees a market stuck between older consoles, rising prices, and a thinner release calendar outside a few major games.