Analysts say Microsoft’s Game Pass reversal on Call of Duty was expected
Microsoft’s recent Game Pass change, which cut the subscription price and pulled Call of Duty out of the day-one lineup, doesn’t look like a shock to market analysts. Speaking to GamesIndustry.biz’s report, Circana’s Mat Piscatella and Ampere Analysis’ Piers Harding-Rolls both said the earlier plan to use Call of Duty as a day-one Game Pass draw never really delivered the kind of long-term subscription boost Microsoft likely wanted.
Piscatella said the move was “not surprising at all,” arguing that Call of Duty on Game Pass didn’t meaningfully lift Xbox console sales or subscriptions. Harding-Rolls took a similar view, saying the commercial case for putting a release that big into a subscription service on day one “has not been realised.” In short, the big spikes were there, but they didn’t seem to stick.
Where they differ is on how much money Microsoft may have lost on premium Call of Duty sales. Harding-Rolls pointed to earlier Bloomberg reporting that estimated a $300 million hit tied to the series’ Game Pass inclusion. Piscatella pushed back on that idea, saying the available data never suggested day-one Game Pass had a major effect on Call of Duty sales overall, including on PlayStation.
Both analysts do agree on one thing: the lower Game Pass Ultimate price should help subscriber numbers. Harding-Rolls said the previous pricing had pushed the service out of reach for a lot of players, while Piscatella said the cheaper tier should improve growth even if it doesn’t immediately raise total spending.
Ampere’s data also suggests price changes have had a big effect on Game Pass revenue before. According to the firm, the September 2024 price increase added roughly $1 billion in consumer spending across Game Pass tiers in 2025 compared to 2024.
Neither analyst sees this as Microsoft abandoning day-one Game Pass releases entirely. The more likely read is that the company is getting pickier about which games fit that strategy, especially when it comes to a series as large and expensive as Call of Duty.
