The Free to Play Market is Ready to Explode
MMOHut readers know that we are wildly optimistic about the future of the free to play market. With literally hundreds of free games available for download, or even without a download for browser games, why does anyone still pay for MMORPGs? Or a FPSes? Or a racing games? And so on.
Now we have a new piece of evidence when making our case to a still mostly skeptical Western audience. The market analyst firm DFC Intelligence has released a report stating that the English language free-to-play industry is expected to grow from $250 million a year today to over $2 billion by 2015. That’s huge. And its not just coming from someone who writes for a free to play review site. It’s coming from DFC Intelligence! Who are they? I haven’t a clue. In fact, I haven’t heard of them until today. But full access to their report costs $3,000 so they’ve got the be legit.
World War 2 – But for Free this Time
But in all seriousness, the writing is already on the wall. Electronics Arts has started to make the transition with games like Battlefield Heroes, Need for Speed World, FIFA Online, and Tiger Woods Online. One of the pioneers of the MMORPG genre, Sony Online Entertainment, has caved in with EverQuest 2 Extended. Even some classic franchises are getting new life thanks to the free to play model. Quake Live and Age of Empires Online are two good examples, but there are many others out there.
Games won’t be entirely free in the future, but f2p fans already know that. Instead, the initial content will be free but extra features will be available via micro-transactions. Valve, through its Steam service has done a lot of pave the way for a fully free to play future. In South Korea where nearly all PC games are free to play, digital distribution is the preferred delivery method. Valve’s latest game on Steam is Alien Swarm which is entirely free to play. This won’t be the case with the next Half-Life or Counter-Strike, but I’m willing to bet that neither will use the traditional one-time purchase model either. When Western studios realize they can make more money over the course of a hit game’s lifespan with the free to play model, they’ll abandon the old retail model for good.
Age of Empires – Going Free to Play!
Some genres are ahead of others when it comes to free to play adoption. The genre furthest along is undoubtedly the MMORPG, but shooters aren’t far behind. How many free to play tactical shooters are out there nowadays? Lots. Some of the better known ones include Combat Arms, Alliance of Valiant Arms, K.O.S. Secret Operations, and Cross Fire. Heck, even the US Army has gotten in on the action with their free FPS America’s Army. Free to play shooters are not just abundant, but generally more innovative than their retail peers. How many nearly identical Call of Duty games are they going to charge us for? With free to play, players can enjoy move diversity such as third-person titles like GunZ: The Duel or S4 League. Most of these shooters have a variety of game modes including some crazy ones where users control zombies or mutants.
More recently, we’ve seen the release of more free to play racing games, real time strategy games, and sports game. I expect this trend to continue and eventually encompass all video game genres. Am I missing something in my predictions, am I overestimating the possibilities of free to play games? Let me know what you think below.
By, Erhan Altay
P.S. Check out the full press release by DFC Intelligence in our news section.
September 3, 2010
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good post, I think its also because games like call of duty isnt that popular any more , because there are also good games wich are free. and ofcourse, they have to protect it very good if they want to make sure not everyone is going to download the game. DDO is a good example of a free to play game wich is still making good money. in the future, there will be a lot of online games I think. but maybe, there will also be good free games wich is not only online, but also has a singleplayer mode.
September 3, 2010
#1
I think you’re wrong about F2P shooters being more innovative. Lots of new shooters are actually just some kind of rip on Counter-Strike. And AVA is just a less polished Modern Warfare clone. If anything there’s less innovation in terms of gameplay, just more variety in terms of graphical style.
September 3, 2010
#2
This is a truly great sign for gamers on a budget. More growth means that big time developers and publishers might start to enter the market, hopefully breaking the mold that a lot of free to play games have made for themselves. I recently participated in the Vindictus CBT and was simply blown away by the graphics and polish in game. If games like Vindictus are the f2p games of the future, then I’m excited to see what the f2p market gets next.
September 3, 2010
#3
I can’t wait for all the new ideas that are soon to come to the mmo genre!
and maybe other games that are p2p are going to be f2p? maybe world of warcraft might do something just like Everquest 2 in the near future?
September 3, 2010
#4
don’t forget about company of heroes! hehe people I saw last log in was about 24k (yea you reading that number right)
September 3, 2010
#5
Nice article but I don’t get what the $3,000 links us to… Just a number or is it something more?
September 3, 2010
#6
Definitely more details, but there’s no way I’m gonna fork over $3k to read a dang report
. lol.
September 4, 2010
#7
Oh they want us to pay to read the report? LOL they pffail..
September 3, 2010
#8
its a good thing too, just think how many pay to play games have died over the years due to being greedy, heck even the awesome cronicles of spellborn died from greed.. i loved that game..[quick shout out to Remo for the vid that got me playing the games last few months].
F2P is the way of the future, DDO had got it down to a fine art, masses of free quests, items and charictors to choose from with the option of buying mission packs that give you loads more!..i was in heaven. till my rangers maxed out
Still if all games followed the trend of F2P and gave players free games with a decent cash shop and options to buy access to areas and missions the online world would be a better place
September 4, 2010
#9
Of course I’d rather have a whole game for $30 then spend $100 constantly buying maps?
September 3, 2010
#10
Does this information mean i’m gonna have to play only f2p games in the future. Buy once play forever shouldn’t go away if it is disappearing.
September 4, 2010
#11
only bad thing about F2P is hackers and chat bots spamming ads they return in second when they get banned
September 4, 2010
#12
Hopefully this make more P2p game go F2P
my pc will be overloaded with games I’ll have to expand my hard-drive ._.
September 4, 2010
#13
Of course I’d prefer P2P because they always screw up F2P. Most F2P entail bad combat, decent graphics, uncaring or absent MODS, and generally an unbalanced game due to cash shop items
September 4, 2010
#14
Kanon, you do realize that this information means that your issues with f2p games will most likely become less of problems, right? As the f2p model becomes recognized by more companies as a viable business model, more will come in. Then, with the increase of companies and games, you get more games to choose from and get a survival of the fittest game scenario. You’ll be able to pick from a wider selection which means f2p games will have to improve in order to stand out. This info really bodes well for every gamer.
September 5, 2010
#15
“Wildly optimistic” is probably an understatement. Quixotically optimistic seems like a better fit. This model only works for multiplayer games, and is at odds with another growing (rapidly growing, more so than the one you’re advocating) business model — DLC. If anything, the free to play market will remain a niche market. DLC will dominate the mindsets of all major publishers with their $15 map packs raking in millions.
Also, Alien Swarm is a bad example of trying to demonstrate how the free-to-play model is breaking into the mainstream as it’s completely free, whereas the actual free-to-play model you’re talking about involves microtransactions (buying expendable items, buffs, and whatnot).
September 5, 2010
#16
Well they are private server out there and torrent sites.You can almost get any games for free in the Internet,even console games.Also Pay to Play company actually spend valuable time and money just to shut down private servers. So i guess F2P are more suitable in today’s modern world.
September 6, 2010
#17
Really awesome that they made a F2P version of Age of Empires but why-oh-why does it have to look so cartoony. I really don’t get why they can’t leave it as it is maybe only a few changes. Kind of ruins the coolness of these classic games.
September 6, 2010
#18
The only thing I’m going to say thought, is this…..Free to play games are very nice but alot and I mean alot! of them have the lames customer services I’v ever seen. Won’t say any names NEXON. Anyway I still feel way more safe in P2P games like Aion and Final fantasy online because I know I’ll get the services I paid for not like F2P where even if you pay you’re treated like a free player!
September 8, 2010
#19
I tend to see P2P as a guaranteed HQ, deserving-of-play game. One that I won’t be complaining about on a regular basis, eyeing it derisively and warily opening it only to be immersed in dull gameplay and done-and-overdone combat systems/features.
So no, I don’t want more F2P games, I want quality games. Ones that I will enjoy, time over and again.
September 9, 2010
#20
Ah, but what none of you seem to realize is that the growing f2p market means that f2p games will get better. Games with unresponsive mods, horrid graphics, boring gamestyles, gender locked classes, etc, etc. will be pushed out as better developers come in and give people what they want. I mean, look at the last couple of years. DDO and LoTro have both gone f2p, DDO is wildly popular and Lotro is seeming like its going to be as well. Everquest 2 has released Everquest 2 Extended. Well known companies like EA are going into free games. Games like Runes of Magic, and Vindictus have come out that give p2p quality for no money.
September 13, 2010
#21
I’ve played both. The nice thing about f2p is that skipping from game to game is easy. As soon as stuff gets so expensive that you actually NEED cash shop to level, you can just abandon the game. Bad thing is, this encourages younger players and brings more drama to every game. It also means that I don’t get to play end-game, which is something I truly enjoy doing. I’ve spent THOUSANDS within just three or four months of play on a “f2p” game, working on getting those last 20 or 30 levels, then surprise, level cap rises, and you start shelling out again. F2p isn’t really a benefit if you like to stick to a game. And it won’t be unless cash shops start getting less expensive, or games actually become finishable (in a less painful manner) by non-paying customer.
Grinding 300 mobs for 1% of a level is insane (translate, about an hour without cash shop), and it is designed to either drive people to an expensive cash shop (roughly $50 per month minimum) or drive them out of the game. With f2p games, the beginning is over-simplified and hand-held, the middle is good, you’re hooked by then… you have friends, you have time, you have reputation invested…. you’re hooked. Bring in the cash shop. THIS is what makes developers switch to f2p …. and what really needs to change. They might as well say “f2p UNTIL level 40,60, 80… * wherever they decide to increase difficulty so that cash shop is the only way to go. F2p just isn’t free.
September 14, 2010
#22
Exactly why I dont call them F2P, I call them P2W. Because games are just alot more dull if you dont spend money in the cash shop to buy cooler things and things to get you to endgame faster/easier. Every F2P game is P2W if not by alot then just a little bit, but always.
I dont mind P2P games, WoW is a great game but honstly I still choose P2W
because I like to buy things to help me out and buy things that not everyone has
to customize my character a bit more. I also like to buy things to resell.
Call me what you want but I choose P2W (F2P) over P2P anyday.
Ps. If you dont know what P2W means… owell.